A
Russian satellite that could weigh as much as three tonnes is expected to
re-enter the Earth's atmosphere on Sunday, reportedly representing a "very
real danger" to densely populated areas.
The
final movements of Kosmos-1220, a decommissioned Soviet military device, are
being monitored by Russian space officials, and Colonel Alexei Zolotukhin told
the news agency RIA Novosti that it would begin an uncontrolled descent today.
Though
the satellite will largely burn up as it passes through the atmosphere, experts
said it was highly likely some fragments will survive to impact the planet's
surface.
Colonel
Zolotukhin said the debris was expected to come down somewhere in the Pacific Ocean,
but added that the "impact time and location of the fragments from
Kosmos-1220 may change due to external factors".
According
to RIA Novosti, the exact size of the naval surveillance satellite has never
been disclosed - but the Tsiklon-2 rocket which put it into orbit in 1980 was
capable of carrying around three tonnes.
The
uncertainty surrounding its re-entry time means debris from Kosmos-1220 could
impact almost anywhere on earth, and Astronomy magazine editor David Eicher
told Fox News this could represent a genuine threat to populated areas.
"Much
of it will burn up in Earth's atmosphere, but no doubt fragments of Kosmos-1220
will reach Earth," Mr Eicher said.
"What
we have going for us is that most of the planet is covered with water, and highly
populated areas are in the minority of our planet's surface area. So it is
unlikely that satellite debris will cause injuries or major damage. Still, with
such a re-entry, we are playing the odds."
"This
is a very real danger, given that a decaying orbit will carry this satellite
down onto the planet," He added.
The
last high-profile satellite re-entry was when the European Space Agency's GOCE
unit - dubbed the "space Ferrari" because of its sleek and compact
design - came down without damage to property in November last year.
The
GOCE satellite weighed only one tonne, however - and had innovative ion drive
propulsion systems allowing agency officials to direct it down over the
uninhabited Southern Ocean.
The
probability of debris from Kosmos-1220 coming down on land is higher, but it is
still statistically unlikely anyone will be harmed.
Heiner
Klinkrad, head of the ESA's Space Debris Office, said at the time of GOCE's
descent: "In the 56 years of spaceflight, some 15,000 tonnes of man-made
space objects have re-entered the atmosphere without causing a single human
injury to date."
Post a Comment